Health Reform's Potential Impact on Physician Supply

Health Reform's Potential Impact on Physician Supply
Thursday March 11, 2010
The New England Journal of Medicine published a study earlier this week about the potential impact health reform may have on the physician workforce.  The survey of over 1,000 physicians showed that many physicians foresee a serious decrease in the physician supply as a result of sweeping health reform, and even a decline in the quality of medical care available to patients due to the additional strain on the physician workforce.*

The study was conducted by The Medicus Firm, a national physician recruitment firm based in Dallas and Atlanta.  Here are some of the key findings:

21% of physicians will try to retire early in the wake of health reform
Another 8% will leave medicine regardless of their proximity to retirement age
42% of physicians predict physician supply will "decline or worsen somewhat" due to health reform, and 14% predict it would "decline or worsen dramatically"
54% of physicians feel that the quality of medical care nationwide will "decline or worsen" as a result of health reform.

Obviously, thousands of physicians suddenly bailing out of medical practice may not be a realistic immediate consequence.  There may not be enough non-clinical jobs for all doctors who wish to move into other roles.  However, it should be of concern to patients, politicians, and health professionals that so many physicians are concerned about the many ways health reform could affect patients' access to care, as well as the quality of care, in addition to physicians' income and careers.

Jim Stone, managing partner of The Medicus Firm, analyzed the results of the survey.  "In reviewing the comments and responses from physicians, it is evident that physicians are very apprehensive and uncertain about this issue.  The majority of physicians indicated that they absolutely do want reform, but they are very concerned about the current legislation, and what the unexpected impact may be on their practices and on healthcare in general." 

Stone went on to say that hospital executives and recruiters need to be prepared for the impact health reform will have on their physician staff.  Many physicians are already overloaded with patients and administrative work, and health reform will most likely increase their patient volume and administrative workload.  "There may be a 'breaking point' for physicians, where they won't feel that their income is growing at a rate worth the increased stress and hours they are working," he added.  According to the survey, many physicians expect their incomes to decrease even as their workloads increase.

As a result of the impact on physician supply and demand, health reform may also increase opportunities for mid-level providers such as nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs).

For more information and analysis of the survey, see the full report in the New England Journal of Medicine.

(*Full disclosure:  The author of this column, Andrea Santiago, is also an employee of The Medicus Firm.)

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